Press review: Russia sticks on NATO security guarantees and EU-Ukraine union edges closer
Top stories from the Russian press on Thursday, June 26th
MOSCOW, June 26. /TASS/. Russia firm on needing formal security guarantees from NATO that Ukraine won't be brought into the alliance; the EU gets serious about moving Ukraine's accession process along; and with the ceasefire in place, Iran may be ready to resume talks on a nuclear deal with US. These stories topped Thursday's newspaper headlines across Russia.
Izvestia: Moscow needs formal security guarantees from NATO on Ukraine
Ukraine’s off-bloc status would need to be formally guaranteed in writing as part of any resolution to the ongoing crisis, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin told Izvestia. According to him, NATO absorbing the country and using it as a springboard for inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia would be unacceptable. Ukraine’s potential membership was not mentioned in the declaration that came out of the alliance’s summit held in The Hague on June 24-25.
However, the leadership of both the EU and the North Atlantic Alliance is reluctant to stop supporting Ukraine. On the first day of the summit, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced plans to strengthen cooperation as part of a joint military innovations program with Kiev, while NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte pledged $35 billion in additional military aid to Ukraine. The EU’s upcoming two-day summit that kicks off in Brussels later on Thursday will discuss an 18th package of anti-Russian sanctions.
Meanwhile, the commitment to increase defense expenditures from 2% to 5% of GDP by 2035 was central to the Hague Summit Declaration. Of the 5% figure, 3.5% is earmarked for defense proper, while the remaining 1.5% will go toward protecting the alliance’s critical infrastructure, ensuring civil preparedness, and strengthening their defense industrial base, among other things.
NATO leaders agree to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP
NATO member countries will broaden their definition of "defense spending" to meet said targets, as otherwise they would be "unattainable," Vadim Koroshchupov, military expert and junior research fellow at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, told Izvestia. "The expanded concept may include civilian expenditures like the construction of bridges, railroads, recruitment of the young into military service, new defense plant projects, cyber security, and assistance to Ukraine," he noted.
"Decisions made at the latest NATO summit show how the alliance’s trajectory has shifted toward intensive rearming. The scenario of a new proxy-war against Russia in the Baltic and the Arctic is being prepared," analyst Tigran Meloyan from the HSE Mediterranean Studies Center told Izvestia. NATO members would seek to prolong the Ukraine conflict until they restore their combat capabilities. In the meantime, they aim to keep Russia’s resources tied up in Ukraine while distracting its attention to other artificially created "gray zones" near its borders, including in the Baltic, the expert maintained.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: EU seeks unity on Ukraine's European future as sanctions vote looms
As the European Union begins its two-day summit on Thursday, the agenda, proposed by President of the European Council Antonio Costa, will invite heads of state and government to discuss the prospects of Ukraine’s EU membership, details of an 18th package of anti-Russian sanctions, and the aftermath of the escalation in the Middle East.
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said ahead of the summit that Brussels is planning to approve "a strong message" regarding Ukraine’s progress on its path toward accession to the EU. Europe must show Ukraine that "they are family," she stressed.
Brussels expects Vladimir Zelensky to take part in a European Council meeting on Ukraine. The "strong" document on Kiev’s preparedness to take part in so-called negotiation clusters on accession is expected to be approved later on Thursday. Every EU member except, perhaps, Hungary, will give their stamp of approval to it. Budapest is adamant about blocking Ukraine’s integration into Europe or any steps in this direction. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said his country’s position is based on the will of its people, citing a nationwide referendum showing that more than two million citizens were against Ukraine’s potential membership in the EU.
"Hungary’s reluctance to sign off on the document adds to uncertainty regarding the future negotiation process as, in line with the existing EU expansion rules, any progress toward accession would require unanimous support from all member states. Without Hungarian support, Ukraine could continue negotiations on accession to the EU only unofficially," Nadezhda Arbatova, head of the Department of European Political Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
As regards the adoption of the 18th package of sanctions, it encountered political problems even prior to the summit, Arbatova said. At the recent G7 summit in Canada, the EU leadership sought US support for lowering the price ceiling for Russian oil to $45 in order to curb Russian revenues which, Brussels insists, are critical to funding the special military operation. However, with clear US support lacking and against the backdrop of a spike in oil prices due to the military escalation between Israel and Iran, von der Leyen backed down.
"Vetoing the 18th sanctions package remains a key bargaining chip in the hands of Hungary, which demands clear guarantees from Brussels," Arbatova explained. However, Brussels and Budapest may still reach a compromise, for, as a skillful negotiator, Orban has a track record of concluding advantageous deals, she concluded.
Izvestia: Iran, US could resume dialogue on nuclear deal
Washington and Tehran may resume talks on Iran’s nuclear program now that a ceasefire is in place. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said earlier that the United States must stop attacks to pave the way for diplomacy. The two sides have held five rounds of indirect talks with Oman’s mediation, while a sixth round was cancelled following the Israeli attack on June 13. Now, trust issues between Donald Trump and the Iranian leadership make moving the dialogue forward a tricky business. However, Tehran has hinted that it is ready to revive the talks, media said.
"From a practical standpoint, returning to the negotiating table would benefit Tehran. But politically, the moment is not right. Tehran will likely pause and reassess before any engagement, depending on how the situation develops," Vladimir Sazhin, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, commented to Izvestia.
Even if the sides return to negotiations, discussing the technical details of Iran’s nuclear program promises to be complex. Western media said the US strikes on Iran’s key nuclear sites hindered the development of the Islamic Republic’s nuclear capabilities only partially. Despite Trump’s claims that the impacted nuclear facilities had been "completely obliterated," the Pentagon admitted it would take time to assess the damage.
Meanwhile, new developments in Tehran could mar prospects for renewing the talks: Iran’s parliament voted to sever its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), a decision that, the Kremlin said, was a clear result of the unprovoked attack on Iran.
According to preliminary data from the New York Times and CNN, citing US intelligence, Iran’s nuclear program was set back only a few months. The US media said even the use of the much-advertised "bunker-busters" designed to destroy fortified underground facilities were not enough to destroy the infrastructure of Iran’s nuclear program.
Moreover, a source told CNN that Iran had removed its stocks of enriched uranium from its nuclear facilities beforehand. According to Sazhin, strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure did cause substantial damage, but did not wipe the program out altogether. In general, he continued, the Iranian nuclear program is in worse condition now, and restoring it will take a substantial amount of time, resources, and investment. And Tehran is in no position to make large investments into reviving its nuclear facilities, as its economy was struggling even before the attacks.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Middle East conflict pushes Russian oil prices up
Prices for Russian oil recently briefly climbed above $60 per barrel amid the conflict between Iran and Israel. While this also happens to be the price ceiling set by the G7 and EU, the bigger issue for Moscow is that $60 was the benchmark the government used when estimating this year’s expected oil and gas revenues.
The country’s oil and gas tax revenues for April (paid in May) already were 20.4 billion rubles ($260.7 million) below expected values. Konstantin Simonov, Director of the National Energy Security Fund, believes that tax revenues for June will be even lower but that the figures in July will grow owing to an increase in the average monthly price of Russian oil amid the Middle East conflict and oil exporters’ quarterly payments of the excess profit tax.
According to Valery Andrianov, associate professor of the Financial University at the Government of the Russian Federation, global oil prices have fallen since the conflict ended, and now Brent is trading at around $66-67 per barrel. Naturally, Russian oil prices may fall, too. And the discount can widen only if the EU brings the price cap for Russian oil to $45 per barrel.
The EU may revisit this idea and actively push for lowering the price ceiling for Russian oil after the Iran-Israel conflict ends, Simonov told Rossiyskaya Gazeta.
Kommersant: Chinese steel exports to Russia grow
China has increased its steel exports to Russia amid weak domestic demand. In the first five months of 2025, exports of iron and steel and associated products to Russia saw a rise of around 16% to $1.63 billion, data from the Chinese customs regulator showed, against a 1.3% increase in 2024.
Dmitry Orekov, managing director at NKR Credit Rating Agency, puts the potential amount of exports in January-May at some 2.3 million metric tons, based on the average export price of Chinese steel at $700 per metric ton.
Currently, China exports mostly stainless steel to Russia, which is not produced domestically, and demand for rolled steel is growing, Viktor Tarnavsky, head of research at an industry magazine, explained to Kommersant. And export volumes depend on demand in Russia: "Chinese producers will not be able to export more than we need," he said.
Chinese steel is often cheaper than Russian steel because of government subsidies, production scale, and accessible logistics, said Sergey Frolov, a managing partner at NEFT Research. And the ruble’s strengthening in January-May brought prices for Chinese imports down across the board, Mikhail Shulgin, chief analyst at the investment research center of Rosgosstrakh Life insurer, added.
Ilya Makarov, corporate ratings director at ACRA rating agency, does not expect any substantial rise in imports to Russia as the government is concerned over market imbalance risks. Should the trend of falling domestic demand in China persist, Chinese exports to Russia may grow by another 10% to 15%, Frolov forecasts. Orekhov, too, expects continued export growth, citing the tightening of restrictions for Chinese imports in other markets.
