Press review: Iran open to deal but Trump may attack and Cuba prepares for mobilization
Top stories from the Russian press on Friday, February 6th
MOSCOW, February 6. /TASS/. Europe plays a destructive role in the Abu Dhabi talks on the Ukrainian settlement amid a progress in the Russia-US dialogue, Iran ready for compromise with the US, Trump may use the talks to launch a surprise attack on Tehran; and Cuba prepares for mobilization due to US threats. These stories topped Friday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Media: Europe plays destructive role in Abu Dhabi talks amid progress in Russia-US dialogue
The second round of closed consultations on the Ukrainian settlement involving Russia, the United States and Ukraine has concluded in the UAE. The only public outcome was an agreement to exchange 314 prisoners of war – the first such step in five months. The suspension of hostilities was also discussed.
Work on Ukraine peace document may take at least 1.5 months, source tells TASS
At the same time, US-Russia negotiations are being conducted behind closed doors, a factor many analysts view positively. Pavel Feldman, professor at the Russian Academy of Labor and Social Relations, told Izvestia that the silence surrounding the talks in Abu Dhabi is a good sign. "At least there are no information leaks or targeted disclosures, which the Ukrainian side previously engaged in systematically. A peace process requires silence," he stressed. Media reports also point to a behind-the-scenes compromise between Moscow and Washington on the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START).
Nonetheless, expectations for a rapid breakthrough remain low. Nikolay Silayev, a leading researcher at the MGIMO Institute of International Relations, told Vedomosti that public statements gave no reason to expect a swift rapprochement. Even so, he said it would be too harsh to describe the talks as "treading water." In his view, the very creation of a negotiation format should be considered a success, especially as new meetings are already being prepared.
However, Moscow’s decision to engage in dialogue with Kiev will not, by itself, lead to a breakthrough in relations between Russia and the United States, noted Fyodor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of Russia in Global Affairs.
Meanwhile, Europe continues to complicate the process. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Dmitry Lyubinsky told Izvestia that European countries are still playing a destructive role in the negotiations. At the same time, some European leaders are increasingly discussing the need for direct contacts with Moscow.
In recent days, French President Emmanuel Macron has stepped up his activity, announcing his intention to call Russian President Vladimir Putin. Feldman believes Macron is softening his rhetoric in an attempt to secure a seat at the negotiating table and restore his role as a mediator between Moscow and Brussels. Nevertheless, such efforts are unlikely to affect the overall dynamics of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. "Macron and Putin may hold a phone call or even meet on neutral ground, but this will hardly change the situation. The French president’s political weight is rapidly diminishing," the expert said.
Media: Iran open to compromise while Trump may plan surprise attack
Negotiations between Iran and the US are set to begin in Oman on February 6. Although Iran has demonstrated its willingness to compromise, the key to a potential deal largely lies with Washington and Europe. Instead of seeking mutually acceptable solutions, Western countries are continuing to rely on sanctions and forceful pressure. US President Donald Trump’s tough rhetoric, who earlier announced the deployment of the US Navy to the region and the need for Tehran to completely abandon nuclear weapons, remains unchanged.
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"The Iranian side has publicly and at various levels made no secret of its willingness to seek a peaceful and mutually acceptable solution to its differences with the US. This has been repeatedly stated by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Arakchi, who has pointed to the need for a fair and equitable approach, mutual respect, the restoration of trust, and the complete absence of threats, pressure, and ultimatums from the US," the Russian embassy in Iran told Izvestia.
Iranian international relations expert Hadi Issa Dalloul believes that it will be very difficult for the parties to reach an agreement and that there is a risk of this process derailing. When assessing the risks of military escalation, he noted that a US military attack on Iran is unlikely. In his opinion, the reason for this is the high cost of such a scenario. According to Dalloul, a full-scale conflict would seriously damage the US military sector and undermine its overall functionality. Currently, the military sector is one of the main sources of stable income for the US budget.
Trump is considering several options, including military action, to secure a deal that is favorable to the Americans, political scientist and American studies expert Malek Dudakov told Vedomosti. In his opinion, Iran is interested in stalling for time in the hope that Trump will be distracted by other issues, such as Greenland or Ukraine. "Trump's ultimate goal is to stage a regime change operation. However, the possibility of public discontent in the US is holding him back. That is why he is hesitating for now. This dynamic could drag on for a long time."
Despite their differences with Iran, Arab countries are interested in stability in the region, Ivan Bocharov, program manager at the Russian International Affairs Council, noted. However, the expert doubts that Arab countries will be able to guarantee Trump's unequivocal refusal to use force. "They have the advantage of the multi-billion-dollar investment commitments that Arab countries made to Trump personally during his regional tour in the summer of 2025."
Izvestia: Cuba gets ready for mobilization due to US threats
Harsh statements from the White House have forced Cuba to take the possibility of an invasion seriously. The country is holding military drills on the island and preparing the civilian population for mobilization. According to experts, the Cuban armed forces are well trained, but their military technology needs to be modernized. Havana will only be able to withstand American pressure with the support of its allies, including the BRICS countries. Russia has confirmed that it will continue to supply Cuba with oil despite Donald Trump's threats of tariffs. Meanwhile, Havana is open to dialogue with Washington, provided there are no conditions or pressure.
Amid Donald Trump's threats against Cuba, Russian Ambassador Viktor Koronelli told Izvestia that the inhabitants of the island are being prepared for mobilization. "Amid the worsening situation in the Caribbean region and tough rhetoric from Washington, the Cuban leadership has announced that the country has developed a plan to prepare for the potential introduction of martial law," the diplomat said. "Military exercises are held regularly, the civilian population is being prepared for mobilization, and Cuba is ready for defense," he noted.
Nevertheless, Cuba has a high level of military training and extremely motivated soldiers, Yegor Lidovskoy, CEO of Russia’s Hugo Chavez Latin American Cultural Center, pointed out. A striking example of the country’s military readiness is Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's security detail, a significant portion of which is Cuban. During the American intervention, 32 Cubans were killed, and they fought "to the last bullet." "The example with Maduro's security guards influenced the island's residents. They understand that this is their war because their soldiers died in this battle," Lidovskoy noted.
However, the problem is that Cuba has outdated equipment and will have to rely on military spirit in the event of an invasion. The island mainly has old Soviet weapons, with no new models, Vadim Koroshchupov, a junior researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ World Economy and International Relations Institute, told Izvestia. Clearly, the capabilities of the US and Cuba are incomparable. If the Americans decide to attack, the island's residents will struggle to resist.
Izvestia: China plans to step up Russian LNG imports
Beijing is interested in increasing its supply of Russian energy resources, including LNG. Experts emphasize that cooperation in this area will help Russia offset the loss of the European market and help China implement its green strategy. However, to increase exports, partners must improve infrastructure.
China is interested in increasing supplies of Russian energy resources, including oil, gas, and LNG, and will expand cooperation with Russia in this area, Ambassador to Moscow Zhang Hanhui told Izvestia.
"But we have encountered problems: first and foremost, of course, logistics. We must resolve this issue. We have the following advantages for cooperation: First, we are neighboring countries. Second, such cooperation is guaranteed by good relations. Third, you have resources and goods, and we have a market – that is, demand. Naturally, this is in the interest of both sides," the diplomat noted.
According to Yekaterina Zaklyazminskaya, head of the Center for World Politics and Strategic Analysis at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ China and Modern Asia Institute, Russia accounted for 14.32% of the Chinese LNG market in 2025, compared with 29.8% for Australia and 28.4% for Qatar. A significant increase in Russia's share is possible given China's accelerated implementation of a "green transition" and the projected growth in gas consumption through 2030.
The need to increase Russian energy supplies is linked to China's growing economic power. China currently accounts for approximately 18% of the global economy, and its GDP grew by 5% last year alone. Increasing LNG imports from Russia is also necessary for the implementation of strategic development directions and the achievement of carbon neutrality, Shanghai Institute of International Studies’ Russia and Central Asia Studies Center Director Li Xin told Izvestia. "Importing LNG from Russia is a necessary choice. It is reliable for China, and China is a reliable partner for Russia. Of course, the Americans are prohibiting China from importing oil from Russia to put pressure on and contain both countries. But Beijing will not waver on this," the expert pointed out.
Compared to other options, gas from Russia has a number of economic advantages for Beijing. Russian LNG helped China reduce its import costs. Supplies from Malaysia are the cheapest, but Russia is a close second, Liu Xu, a researcher at the National Academy of Development and Strategy at China’s Renmin University, told Izvestia.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Russian oil and gas budget revenues fall to lowest level since 2020
Oil and gas revenues in the Russian budget have fallen to their lowest level since July 2020. This January (payments are for December), the treasury received 393.3 billion rubles (5.1 billion dollars) from the industry. Compared to January 2025, oil and gas revenues have fallen by around half. The oil segment showed the most pronounced decline.
The reasons are well known: low global oil prices, sanctions that have led to higher discounts on Russian oil grades, and a strong ruble. However, the situation may improve in February, when payments for January will be made. The fact is that US actions against Iran and Venezuela have led to an increase in global oil prices. Another negative factor is that the global media is full of reports that India, under pressure from the US, is refusing to buy our oil, even though this country was its main importer by sea.
Russian National Energy Security Fund head Konstantin Simonov told Rossiyskaya Gazeta that an increase in oil and gas revenues is likely in February and March. This is primarily due to adaptation to sanctions and rising oil prices. There is a lot of noise around India right now, but companies from that country have already received the maximum discounts available. They will not be able to receive additional discounts, and their competitors simply cannot match lower prices.
Daniil Tyun, head of the customer relations department at AMCH, is more cautious in his assessment of the outlook. He believes that oil and gas revenues may grow in February, but there will be no significant increase. The expert sees increased discounts and a strong ruble as the reasons for the slowdown in growth. In his opinion, oil and gas revenues in February will remain at roughly half the level seen a year ago. In the future, a potential decline in production will add to the risks to the budget already mentioned, Tyun pointed out.
Meanwhile, energy expert Kirill Rodionov expects a significant decline in oil and gas revenues in the budget at the end of March (paid in April). They will reach a multi-year quarterly low due to increased discounts and stabilized world oil prices at relatively low levels.
