Press review: Israel, Hamas sign ceasefire deal as Russia, Azerbaijan work to restore ties
Top stories from the Russian press on Friday, October 10th
Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin
MOSCOW, October 10. /TASS/. Israel and Hamas signed a ceasefire agreement in Gaza, marking the first step toward implementing Donald Trump’s peace plan; Russia and the United States are moving to resume dialogue on disarmament; and Vladimir Putin and Ilham Aliyev held their first meeting since the 2024 Azerbaijan Airlines crash. These stories topped Friday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Izvestia: Israel, Hamas take first step toward settlement with ceasefire agreement
Israel and Hamas concluded a ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip on October 9 in Sharm el-Sheikh, marking the initial move toward implementing Donald Trump’s peace plan. Mediators expressed optimism: the Egyptian president, who attended the signing ceremony, said that the Gaza agreement would give the people of the Middle East hope for a stable future. However, experts warn that it is too soon to celebrate. In their view, hardliners within the Israeli government may attempt to derail further negotiations. Moreover, once the hostages are released, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may lose his motivation to sustain a constructive dialogue with the Palestinian side, Izvestia writes.
Israeli government approves deal to release hostages as part of Gaza settlement
The agreement is based on Trump’s proposed "48 for 2,000" formula. The Palestinian side agreed to release 48 hostages in exchange for 250 Palestinians serving life sentences. Netanyahu stated that within the next 24 hours, the IDF would also halt military operations in Gaza and withdraw its forces to a pre-agreed line. Then, within the following 72 hours, the exchange of hostages and prisoners would occur.
At present, all parties involved are eager to swiftly finalize the agreement, even in a limited form, researcher at the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Grigory Lukyanov told Izvestia.
"Each party, including the mediators, seeks to lessen the impact of the turbulence that has turned the conflict into an unpredictable factor of destabilization — not only for the Middle East but for a large segment of the global economy and international security," he said.
The hostage exchange represents only the first stage of the settlement plan, and the easiest, Izvestia writes. Once this stage is completed, the parties will face the challenge of determining Gaza’s postwar governance.
In this regard, Program Manager at the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) Ivan Bocharov noted that the negotiation framework set by the parties does not offer much optimism. "Even the first phase of the peace plan could fail, not to mention that fundamental issues remain unresolved, including who will govern the Gaza Strip after the end of hostilities," he said.
The long-term viability of the peace plan remains uncertain, as part of the Israeli establishment continues to support the continuation of the military campaign in Gaza. "Given that Hamas has provided mixed signals about its readiness to accept Trump’s ‘20 points,’ it is possible that, with the White House’s tacit approval, Netanyahu — after the hostages’ release, which was the main demand of his domestic opposition — will lose interest in pursuing further negotiations," research fellow at the Department of Foreign Policy Studies of the Institute for the US and Canadian Studies Alexey Yurk told Izvestia.
Izvestia: Russia, US move toward disarmament dialogue
Russia and the United States are working to reestablish dialogue on disarmament issues. The US delegation at the Conference on Disarmament has expressed interest in restoring contact with Moscow, Russia’s Permanent Representative to the UN Office in Geneva Gennady Gatilov told Izvestia. In particular, there are prospects for reviving talks on biological weapons, as Donald Trump earlier announced the United States’ readiness to lead international efforts to verify their control. Moscow supports this approach, the Russian diplomat noted.
"Recently, the American delegation has become more active in the work of the Conference on Disarmament. The rhetoric toward our country has also noticeably shifted — groundless anti-Russian accusations related to the Ukrainian crisis have stopped. This shows a clear distinction between the US position and that of the traditional European Russophobes. US representatives are indicating that they seek to restore working contacts within the conference," the diplomat said.
At the same time, Gatilov stressed that cooperation with the United States remains limited, apart from occasional contacts on issues of shared interest. Russia and the United States still face many unresolved questions in the field of arms control. The most urgent of these concerns the future of the New START Treaty, which expires in February 2026. Russia has recently suggested that the US continue to follow the main provisions of the agreement for another year to gain time for new arrangements. Another major accord, ended during Trump’s first administration, is the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty.
There are also chances for renewed cooperation on matters specifically related to biological weapons. At the 80th session of the UN General Assembly in New York, Donald Trump said that the United States would lead international efforts to monitor biological weapons. Russia has welcomed the fact that the US has recognized the need to establish a verification mechanism under the Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production and Stockpiling of Bacteriological (Biological) and Toxin Weapons and on their Destruction (BTWC).
"We welcome the very fact that official Washington, for the first time in a long while, has in effect acknowledged the importance and necessity of creating a verification mechanism for the BTWC. This gives reason for measured optimism," Gatilov told the newspaper.
Vedomosti: Russia, Azerbaijan seek to restore relations after plane crash strained ties
Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev on October 9 in Dushanbe, where Putin arrived on a state visit after his talks with Tajik President Emomali Rahmon. On October 10, Tajikistan will host a summit of the CIS heads of state, which both Putin and Aliyev are expected to attend. This was the first substantive meeting between the leaders of Russia and Azerbaijan since relations between the two countries soured following the crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines plane en route from Baku to Grozny in December 2024. Experts told Vedomosti they believe the meeting was an important step toward easing tensions, but the future of Russian-Azerbaijani ties will depend on Baku’s response to Moscow’s pledges of compensation and accountability.
Putin, Aliyev meet at Kokhi Somon residence in Dushanbe
During the opening part of the meeting, Putin spoke in detail about what he called "the most sensitive topic" — the tragedy involving the Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 aircraft that crashed in December 2024. Putin said that the investigation into the crash is nearing its end and that the causes of the tragedy can now be openly discussed. The first contributing factor, he explained, was the appearance of Ukrainian drones in Russian airspace on the day of the incident — Russia was tracking three such UAVs. The second factor involved technical failures in Russia’s air defense system. He noted that the two missiles launched did not hit the aircraft directly (which would have caused an immediate crash) but detonated about 10 meters away.
Notably, the leaders also discussed broader bilateral ties. Putin remarked that the interests of Russia and Azerbaijan "coincide and are very close in many areas," while Aliyev stressed that "not only trade and economic cooperation, but relations across all other spheres have developed successfully this year."
The key question now, Nikolay Silayev, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for International Studies at MGIMO University, told Vedomosti, is whether Baku will be satisfied with Moscow’s statements acknowledging compensation and responsibility for those involved. If Azerbaijan was indeed dissatisfied mainly with Russia’s reaction to the crash, Putin’s remarks should help defuse tensions. However, if Azerbaijan used the tragedy merely as a pretext to highlight its growing international role at Russia’s expense, then Moscow’s assurances are unlikely to appease Baku, Silayev noted.
The very fact that the meeting took place and that Putin outlined a position that did not provoke public rejection marks an important move toward stabilizing relations, Head of the Central Asia Sector at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations RAS Stanislav Pritchin told the newspaper. According to Silayev, the true indicator of the relationship’s direction will be how the situation develops around the detained Russian citizens, Sputnik Azerbaijan, and the recently closed Russian House in Baku.
Kommersant: Turkish demand surging drives Russian coal prices to highest level since February
Demand for Russian thermal coal in Turkey is surging, pushing prices upward. Cement producers are actively procuring the fuel, while some power companies are seeking to rebuild their reserves ahead of the peak season. Turkey remains the largest destination for Russian coal exporters in the western direction, offering logistical benefits as well. However, western exporters are still compelled to sell coal at a markdown due to sanctions-related risks, Kommersant writes.
According to NEFT Research, the price of Russian thermal coal with a calorific value of 6,000 kcal per kg, delivered to Turkey, rose by 3.3% in the week of September 30 to October 5, reaching $94.5 per ton including freight (CFR). This marks the highest point since February and the sharpest weekly price change across both western and eastern markets.
As highlighted in the NEFT Research report, Turkish cement plants continue to buy Russian coal because alternatives remain costlier. "There is also heightened activity among some buyers seeking cargoes for delivery in December-January. This may be linked to the expected rise in electricity exports to Syria and a desire to secure shipments in advance amid forecasts of stronger seasonal demand," the analysts stated.
Nevertheless, Alexander Kotov, consulting partner at NEFT Research, noted that even high-calorific Russian coal is still being sold at a discount in western markets, reaching up to 20%. Overall, prices there remain lower than in certain eastern markets under comparable conditions. The pricing gap between eastern and southern or western ports on an FOB basis amounts to about $10-20 per ton, added Evgeny Grachev, Director of the Center for Price Indices (CPI). According to him, seasonal demand will likely become more pronounced toward the end of the year.
Kotov further emphasized that Turkey may maintain or even boost its demand for imported coal, especially if gas prices and regulatory barriers increase, while renewable energy development continues to lag. "The country is facing growing domestic electricity demand, and its own generation capacity simply cannot keep up. Coal remains a consistently reliable source for base load generation, particularly during periods of reduced hydroelectric output," Oleg Abelev, Head of the Analytical Department at Rikom-Trust, told the newspaper.
Vedomosti: Russia’s gas production may miss 2030 targets
The indicator of utilized gas resources, which includes production, withdrawals from underground gas storage (UGS) facilities, and balancing import supplies from Kazakhstan, is projected to total 788 bln cubic meters (bcm) in Russia by 2030, a 15% rise compared with 2024 levels, according to a report by the consulting company Kept. Thus, gas production in 2030 will not surpass 788 bcm, which is below the targets set not only in the baseline but even in the inertial scenario of Russia’s Energy Strategy through 2050. Analysts interviewed by Vedomosti believe Russia’s gas production targets are overly optimistic given uncertain pipeline export prospects, and the improbability of a rapid export recovery.
The report highlighted that the decline in gas exports to the European Union (EU) in 2022-2023 caused reduced production in the country. The growing domestic demand, the development of liquefied natural gas (LNG) production, and increased exports to China only partially offset this drop. According to the Ministry of Energy, Russia’s pipeline gas exports in 2024 reached 119.8 bcm, which is 1.7 times lower than the figure recorded in 2021.
Kept’s analysts outlined five key directions for the development of Russia’s gas market: gasification and natural gas as motor fuel, gas chemistry and gas processing, exports to Asian countries, development of LNG production and exports, and growth in gas-based power generation. Together, these areas could add another 102 bcm of gas resources by 2030, the report said.
However, forecasting supply volumes to Iran and Central Asia, as well as the timing of the launch of the Power of Siberia-2 pipeline to China via Mongolia, remains uncertain, analyst at Finam Sergey Kaufman told Vedomosti. If cooperation with Iran proves successful, pipeline exports could exceed Kept’s forecast, and Russia’s gas production could approach 800 bcm, the expert noted.
At the same time, the target scenario of the Energy Strategy appears rather optimistic, according to Kaufman and Igor Yushkov, expert at the Financial University under the Russian Government, given the existing challenges in implementing LNG projects and the uncertain outlook for pipeline gas exports to the EU. To achieve production growth to 853 bcm, either a sharp recovery of exports — possible only with the restoration of relations with Europe, or a significant acceleration in domestic demand would be required, Kaufman argues. Yet, under current conditions, both scenarios appear highly unlikely, he added.
