Press review: Israeli reprisal against Iran looms and Iraq bets on Russia amid US exit
Top stories from the Russian press on Thursday, October 3rd
MOSCOW, October 3. /TASS/. Middle East tensions reach fever pitch as Israel mulls response to Iranian attack; Iraq looks to buddy up to Russia in the face of the US-led coalition’s withdrawal from the country; and US vice presidential debate sees zero mention of Ukraine. These stories topped Thursday's newspaper headlines in Russia.
Izvestia: Israeli payback against Iran coming as tensions in Middle East soar
Late on October 1, Iran launched a massive attack on Israel, firing about 180 (as many as 400 according to some sources) ballistic missiles at various targets, including air bases, energy infrastructure, equipment depots, and other objects. Israel is planning to strike back at Iran in the coming days, which could lead to an escalation of the conflict and to a major war in the region, Izvestia writes. The Jewish state may target Iranian oil and nuclear facilities. The IDF emphasizes that Israel will respond to the threat "when and where it deems necessary." Meanwhile, the situation on the border of the Jewish state with Lebanon is currently deteriorating sharply.
Israel bears all blame for Middle East escalation — Russia’s UN envoy
"Israel has been fighting Iran's proxies on various fronts for a year now. It has also repelled two large-scale missile attacks from Iran. We can protect our country and our people, as we have proven many times. We also have the ability to respond to a threat to our country when and where we deem necessary," IDF representative Anna Ukolova told Izvestia.
The prospect of a major war seems more real than ever given that Israel is already fighting on two fronts — against Hamas and Hezbollah. Then there are the Houthis in Yemen, who have already launched attacks on Israeli territory. And, amid all this, the IDF has officially begun operations in Lebanon, Izvestia writes.
Israel finds itself in a very difficult position, even with trusted ally the US behind it. Middle East expert Leonid Tsukanov told the newspaper that until recently it seemed that Israel had the upper hand, but Iran's latest attack has leveled the playing field somewhat.
At the same time, Deputy Chairman of the Association of Russian Diplomats and professor at the National Research University Higher School of Economics Andrey Baklanov believes that there are no real prerequisites for a major war in the region.
"The countries involved are not ready for this, including Israel. It's had a hard time achieving its goals in the Gaza Strip. I think it would fare rather poorly in a regional conflict and possibly suffer quite serious damage. Moreover, it is not clear what its ultimate goal would be. Iran, strictly speaking, is not attacking it as a state and is ready for some degree of de-escalation. The countries have no territorial disputes to speak of either," he told the newspaper.
In his opinion, regional players need to take more active efforts in order to prevent a large-scale conflict. According to Baklanov, the League of Arab States is reportedly preparing a number of initiatives, but there are no details yet.
Izvestia: Iraq seeks military partnership with Russia amid withdrawal of US-led coalition
Iraq would like to develop intelligence and military cooperation with Russia. Being that Moscow has a proven track record of keeping terrorism at bay, Baghdad sees an opportunity to work together to make sure radical organizations do not return to Iraqi soil, political adviser to the Prime Minister of Iraq Fadi al-Shammari said in an interview with Izvestia.
Iraq wants to work with international partners to ensure security amid the continuing terrorist threat in parts of neighboring Syria, he told the newspaper. "Russia has extensive experience in fighting terrorism and has advanced military and intelligence capabilities that could benefit Iraq. The countries are united by long-standing ties, which we seek to develop and strengthen in the security, military, intelligence, economic and scientific spheres," he told Izvestia.
With the United States and Iran both fighting for influence in Iraq, the country aims to balance its foreign policy by bringing new international allies into the fold.
Strengthening military cooperation with Russia will help Iraq improve its defense capabilities and gain access to advanced weapons. "Iraq has shown that it is fully ready to cooperate with Russia. Historically, Iraq’s military doctrine was aligned with the Eastern Bloc from the mid-20th century until the fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime, which indicates a willingness to accept proposals from Russia. Our relations with Moscow have always been very good. Russia can provide Iraqi military units with weapons that Iraq lacks," Iraqi military expert Safaa Al-Asam told Izvestia.
The international coalition led by the United States has decided to complete its military mission in Iraq. The withdrawal of coalition troops should take place within the next 12 months, September 2025 at the latest. The withdrawal of the international coalition symbolizes a new stage in the reconstruction of Iraq. Although Washington has room for maneuver by declaring that the withdrawal will not be absolute, it could still create gaps in Iraq's security. "There is an opportunity to develop Russian-Iraqi relations by strengthening military capabilities, the most important thing is the agreement to conclude a contract on the sale of the S-400 air defense system to Iraq. This could shift the balance of power and provide Iraq with greater leverage between global powers," military expert and retired Iraqi Armed Forces officer Saif Raad told Izvestia.
Vedomosti: US vice-presidential candidates hold civil debate, not asked about Ukraine
Republican vice-presidential candidate JD Vance and his Democratic opponent Tim Walz took part in a televised debate on October 2 on CBS. The media highlighted one feature that distinguished the current debates from the September 10 presidential debates between Donald Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris — the absence of personal attacks. At the same time, experts told Vedomosti that Vance's successful performance could help Trump gain an upper hand with voters in the Midwest.
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Also peculiar was the debate’s lack of mention about Ukraine. The event began with a foreign policy block. The only question was about the escalation in the Middle East after the Iranian attacks on Israel on October 1. According to the NYT, foreign policy was discussed for just under four minutes.
After the debate, CBS released a poll showing that 42% of viewers saw Vance as the victor, while 41% voted for Walz, and 17% said it was a tie. After the debate, Walz's approval rating rose from 52% to 60%, and Vance's from 40% to 49%.
Trump and Harris had already discussed foreign policy issues in depth, so there was no point in repeating them, leading researcher at the HSE Center for Comprehensive Economic Studies Lev Sokolshchik told Vedomosti. He explained that the Vice President has no authority over foreign policy, and the candidates were only asked about Israel because the Iranian attack occurred several hours before the debate. Sokolshchik believes no questions were asked about Ukraine because the American public didn’t want to hear about it, as there is a general fatigue about the issue in the country.
Vice-presidential debates typically don’t matter much in the grand scheme of the presidential race or its outcome. But there have been exceptions in history, Head of Minchenko Consulting Evgeny Minchenko noted. The expert recalled that in 2012, after Joe Biden debated then Republican vice-presidential candidate Paul Ryan, former President Barack Obama, who was running for re-election in 2012, saw a big boost to his ratings following unsuccessful debates with Republican rival Mitt Romney.
According to Minchenko, Vance's successful performance could help Trump in the Midwest, where key battleground states Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania could swing the balance of the election.
Vedomosti: China, Russia deepen Arctic cooperation with first joint patrols
For the first time in history, patrol ships of the Chinese Coast Guard entered the waters of the Arctic Ocean to conduct joint patrols with coast guard ships of the Border Service of the Russian Federal Security Service, the Chinese department reported on WeChat on October 2. According to experts interviewed by Vedomosti, this is a sign of growing cooperation between the countries in the region.
The fact that China is now involved in patrolling the Arctic is very significant and indicates that China is a very close partner of Russia in the region, professor at St. Petersburg State University Yana Leksyutina told the newspaper. This is especially important given Moscow's cooling relations with the Western Arctic countries, which are trying to squeeze Russia out of regional cooperation, the expert said. China has very broad interests in the Arctic, she noted, including research activities, environmental protection, and "enormous" economic and energy interests. According to the expert, China is involved in LNG development in the region, and Beijing is the largest foreign investor in this area. In addition, China also has its eyes on the Northern Sea Route.
China has declared itself a near-Arctic state and intends to increase its presence in the region, scientific director of the Russian International Affairs Council Andrey Kortunov agrees.
Beijing is primarily trying to show its research interest in the region. There is no threat to Russia's sovereignty over the Arctic from China, Director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics Vasily Kashin told Vedomosti. The two countries have opposing viewpoints about the Arctic — China's position is that the Arctic is the property of all mankind, and therefore everyone should resolve issues related to it. Meanwhile, Russia believes that Arctic issues should be addressed primarily by the Arctic states.
At the same time, since all other Arctic states are NATO members, Russia has no other partner in the region except China. China is the only export market for Arctic resources and the main investor. As for military cooperation in the Arctic, at this point, it's out of the question. Future Chinese military activity in the Arctic is purely hypothetical, Kashin added.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Trade war between Russia, Kazakhstan looms as grain transit dispute intensifies
Russia is suspending imports of grain and processed products from Kazakhstan to its territory. Kazakh producers called these restrictions a response to Astana's ban on wheat imports from Russia until January 1, 2025, and described the situation as the beginning of a trade war, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes. Meanwhile, Russian producers explain the suspension with concerns about phytosanitary safety. Exporters of Kazakh grain to Turkey and Europe have already encountered difficulties in transit through Russia. Experts believe the dispute could escalate into a major trade conflict.
Representative of the Grain Union of Kazakhstan Evgeny Karabanov believes that the situation could lead to a trade war. "Our authorities have two options: either to lift the ban on imports of Russian wheat, or to impose a ban on imports of flour, dairy products, meat, and other products. However, it is worth considering that in response there could be a ban on the transit of coal, oil and oil products. In the second case, leaving the Eurasian Economic Community would be a logical step that will lead to its end," APK Novosti agency quoted Karabanov as saying. According to Evgeny Karabanov, the restrictions imposed by Russia are an official warning that Russia will strictly protect its economic interests.
Meanwhile, Kazakhstan is expecting a large grain harvest of up to 17 mln tons of wheat. Of this volume, two mln tons will be enough for the country’s own needs and the rest will be exported with Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan and China being expected to be the main buyers.
Head of the sector at the Center for Post-Soviet Studies at IMEMO RAS Elena Kuzmina told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that the current situation does not meet the definition of a trade war. "The problem is complex and did not start yesterday, but a solution will surely be found. Kazakhstan must reconsider its ban on imports of Russian wheat both for the domestic market and for transit, without increasing the cost of the transit tariff, as the participants of the Kazakh grain market insist," she stressed.
According to the expert, competition between grain producers is preventing the situation from returning to normal. During the 2020 pandemic, Kazakhstan stopped exporting its grain to Central Asian countries and Russia took its place making it difficult for Kazakhstan to return to this market.
