Press review: Russia and US discuss peace plan as experts doubt US will invade Venezuela
Top stories from the Russian press on Wednesday, December 3rd
MOSCOW, December 3. /TASS/. Russia and the US discuss the controversies of a peace plan to resolve the Ukraine conflict; experts doubt the US will carry out an invasion of Venezuela; and Moscow needs to give a tough response to attacks threatening the security of navigation in the Black Sea. These stories topped Wednesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Media: Russia, US discuss peace plan controversies
Talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US Special Presidential Envoy Steve Witkoff lasted five hours, with Kremlin Aide Yury Ushakov describing the meeting as very useful and substantive. The specific wording of the peace plan was not discussed, but the parties did touch upon the territorial issue, Izvestia notes.
The talks are unlikely to secure rapid progress because ahead of the Putin-Witkoff meeting, Ukraine did not seem willing to make concessions on the issues that Moscow sees as crucial, including the reduction of the Ukrainian armed forces, their withdrawal from the territories they hold and the need to secure Ukraine’s non-bloc status, Tigran Meloyan, an analyst with the Center for Mediterranean Studies at the Higher School of Economics, believes. "We are in a situation where it will take more than one round of talks before Kiev recognizes the current state of affairs and accepts Moscow’s peace terms, which may only grow tougher every time," the expert pointed out.
The very fact of Steve Witkoff’s visit to Russia does not necessarily indicate any tangible progress in resolving the Ukraine crisis, political scientist Ivan Loshkaryov noted. "It’s Russia that is in a more advantageous position. Moscow maintains an edge on the battlefield, keeping the rate of economic restructuring quite high in order to continue achieving the goals of its special military operation. What is also weakening Ukraine’s position is a government void, with a corruption scandal giving rise to significant divisions between Kiev and its allies in Europe," the expert elaborated.
When it comes to the Ukraine settlement, supporters of a constructive dialogue are coming to the forefront in the Trump team, Pavel Koshkin, senior researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for US and Canadian Studies, told Vedomosti. According to him, this reflects Trump’s acceptance of the fact Moscow has all the advantages and the longer the conflict lasts the worse the terms will be for Ukraine. However, Trump may try again to maneuver in order to avoid accusations of holding a weak negotiating position. But basically his main priority is to demonstrate some clear results in the Ukraine negotiation process by the end of the year to prove the effectiveness of his diplomatic approach to his domestic political opponents.
Vedomosti: US unlikely to invade Venezuela
US President Donald Trump demanded in a recent phone call that Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro leave the country, otherwise threatening him with severe consequences. The latter reportedly agreed on the condition that Washington grant complete amnesty to him and his family and lift sanctions. However, the US president refused and closed the Latin American nation’s airspace after his ultimatum expired, Vedomosti notes.
US-Venezuela tensions flared up in late August after Trump signed a secret order on the use of military force against Latin American drug cartels.
Meanwhile, Maduro maintains a fairly strong position in Venezuela’s vertical of power despite a protracted economic crisis, Viktor Kheifets, editor-in-chief of the Latin America magazine, pointed out. If the US army does not invade the country, his government is unlikely to collapse, even amid US aerial bombardments, the expert believes. What is playing into the hands of the Venezuelan authorities is that there is no real opposition in the country, the political scientist explained.
The likelihood of a US ground operation against Venezuela is extremely low, Kheifets went on to say. The United States does not have enough forces in the region for a full-fledged invasion, and it is also unclear how the situation would unfold in such a case, the expert added. In his view, the US military could, in theory, carry out missile and bomb strikes on the Latin American nation. "The Venezuela army will probably be able to protect the country from air strikes but it definitely lacks the ability to destroy US naval forces as the missile systems it possesses cannot cause any significant damage to an aircraft carrier. However, if a ground operation is launched, the Venezuelans could switch to guerilla-war tactics, making the Americans suffer major losses," the analyst explained.
According to Pavel Dubravsky, head of Dubravsky Consulting, Washington is more likely to increase the pressure of sanctions on Caracas and its friendly countries rather than implement a scenario based on force, and it could also continue to actively support the Venezuelan opposition. "The Americans will seek to raise tensions but in a controlled manner, creating the threat of a force-based scenario but without crossing the line," the analyst said.
Izvestia: Russia to give tough response to attacks threatening navigation safety in Black Sea
An attack on Russia’s Midvolga 2 tanker carrying sunflower oil continued the series of strikes on civilian vessels in the Black Sea. Earlier, unmanned boats targeted two tankers flying the flag of the Gambia. Experts interviewed by Izvestia believe that the "tanker war" is part of Ukraine’s deliberate strategy of undermining peace efforts.
The Black Sea has become a setting for "resounding media victories," which Kiev tries to use to "cover up" the overall negative developments in the special military operation zone, military expert Dmitry Boltenkov said.
Experts point out that Kiev seeks to achieve several goals. First, it is trying to undermine peace talks by provoking an extremely harsh response from Russia. The second goal is to strengthen Ukraine’s negotiating positions regarding a potential peace agreement. And the final aim is to divert public attention from mounting problems on the line of contact and domestic corruption scandals.
"We should be prepared for a situation where Kiev and its Western partners will have to increasingly rely on radical steps outside the combat zone in order to gain stronger cards," Tigran Meloyan, an analyst with the Center for Mediterranean Studies at the Higher School of Economics, emphasized. In his opinion, if the international community fails to condemn Ukraine’s actions, similar incidents can occur anywhere else in the world, including the Baltic Sea, where Russian oil tankers travel.
Experts agree that an escalation of tensions in the Black Sea will inevitably result in a tough response by Russia. In particular, Moscow needs to work quicker to put into operation its own unmanned strike boats in order to attack Ukraine’s coastal areas, namely the ports of Odessa and Ochakov that are used for the delivery of Western weapons.
Moscow could also consider introducing a system of convoys to escort tankers in high-risk areas, which would involve speedboats equipped with drones and light weapons, Meloyan added. Another option is to deploy armed guards aboard ships, although it will require significant changes to laws and the terms of entry to foreign ports.
Izvestia: Israel expands control zone to 58% of Gaza territory
Israel has expanded its control zone in the Gaza Strip to 58% of the enclave’s territory, worsening a humanitarian crisis as hundreds of thousands of Palestinians live in tents and suffer from clean water scarcity, a Fatah movement spokesperson told Izvestia. Meanwhile, talks on the second phase of the peace deal have stalled, with Hamas failing to return the bodies of two hostages and Israel continuing to carry out strikes on Gaza.
Israel’s move to expand its control zone in Gaza means that the living space for about 2.4 million Palestinians has once again shrunk. This will result in a humanitarian and sanitary disaster, the Fatah movement’s spokesperson in the enclave Munther Al-Hayek stressed.
In the meantime, the situation around Gaza remains uncertain. The US-brokered ceasefire agreement, in effect since October 10, has been repeatedly violated as Israel continues its strikes on the enclave. Israel claims to be responding to attacks on its troops deployed along the perimeter, but the Hamas movement denies involvement in those strikes.
Roman Yanushevsky, editor-in-chief of Israel’s Channel 9 website, pointed out that Hamas planned to hold back the bodies of Israeli captives. In the expert’s view, after handing over all living hostages and the majority of bodies, the movement seeks to buy time in order to evade a conversation about the remaining bodies and make sure it does not have to disarm.
Palestinian expert Hani Salah notes that ineffective efforts to form international security forces are hampering the process as most countries that have been invited to participate refuse to send troops to Gaza, so the initiative is stalled.
The Israeli media, in turn, report about potential plans to resettle Gaza residents and discussions of options for expanding the Israeli Defense Forces' operations. Meanwhile, Qatar and Egypt are trying to preserve diplomatic channels and prevent a complete collapse of agreements. Doha emphasizes the need to move on to the second phase of the plan aimed at ensuring a lasting ceasefire and creating conditions for the reconstruction of Gaza.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: US oil production creates threats for Russia, OPEC+
The US companies that develop shale oil fields are reporting a drop in production costs and revising their plans to raise output forecasts. The process continues despite a decline in global oil prices, Rossiyskaya Gazeta writes.
It’s clear that US oil production will not grow as fast as it used to because the shale revolution is over. However, if the average cost of US shale oil has really fallen, then even a gradual increase in output will have a disruptive impact on the global market, where OPEC+ nations are trying to maintain a balance between supply and demand. In addition, if oil prices continue to decrease, US production growth will also negatively affect Russia’s oil revenues.
Oleg Zhirnov, investment and capital market partner at Kept, believes that the overall oil surplus on the market, with a focus on the OPEC+ group’s potential move to increase output and the future level of Russian oil exports, will be the main destabilizing factor for the market next year. Besides, the situation around Venezuela could also play a role as the country is capable of significantly increasing production.
Valery Andrianov, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, notes that the US oil industry remains highly ambitious, with a strategy focused on pushing other exporters out of the market. In this context, escalating tensions around Venezuela, sanctions on Russian companies, and the destruction of facilities used for exporting Kazakhstan’s oil are all part of a single chain of events, serving the same purpose: clearing the path for US oil.
Still, none of the experts expects US oil production to grow substantially in 2026-2027. Analysts agree in their forecasts that output will remain approximately at the 2025 level.
