Press review: Turkey to mediate in Russian-Ukrainian conflict while IDF strikes Gaza

Top stories from the Russian press on Saturday, November 2nd

MOSCOW, November 2. /TASS/. Turkey has expressed its readiness to act as a mediator in the settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, despite its ongoing military-technical cooperation with Ukraine. Meanwhile, the Israeli Defense Forces are intensifying strikes against Hamas in the Gaza Strip as international settlement efforts continue. And, Hungary plans to maintain its peace mission to resolve the conflict in Ukraine after its EU presidency concludes. These stories topped Saturday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

Vedomosti: Ankara's military cooperation with Kiev 'causes bewilderment' in Moscow

Turkey's military-technical cooperation with Ukraine, set against Ankara's statements about its willingness to act as a mediator in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, is causing confusion in Moscow, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in an interview with the Turkish newspaper Hurriyet. He noted that Ukrainian armed forces are utilizing Turkish weapons against Russian servicemen and civilians, Vedomosti reports.

Turkish mediation unlikely to succeed, because Kiev, West do not want peace — Lavrov

Lavrov also acknowledged that Moscow values Ankara's efforts to resolve the Ukrainian crisis, adding that Russia remains open to a political settlement, although the Ukrainian side is currently not inclined to negotiate.

Earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin mentioned at a press conference following the BRICS summit in Kazan on October 24 that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had invited him to discuss proposals for peace talks.

Denis Denisov, an expert at the Financial University under the Russian Government, remarked to Vedomosti that if Ankara intends to assume the role of mediator, it should at least halt its supply of weapons to Ukraine. He emphasized that Lavrov's comments do not signify a deterioration in Russian-Turkish relations, as Ankara continues to be a crucial economic partner for Moscow.

Denisov further pointed out that Turkey is not alone in its ambition to mediate; the Sino-Brazilian "Friends of Peace" platform, along with several African countries and Indonesia, is also pursuing this role. He noted, "Qatar and Saudi Arabia played a significant role in the negotiations for the exchange of prisoners. The key factor for negotiations with Ukraine is the presence of political will while respecting Russia's national interests — the recognition of new territories, as outlined in Putin's formula."

The prospect of any mediation, including by Turkey, remains highly uncertain, according to Nikolay Silaev, a leading researcher at MGIMO University. He stated that the West cannot act as a mediator, given its role as a party to the conflict.

"The question of how the global majority can influence Kiev’s decisions also remains unresolved. The West is unlikely to relinquish its status as the dominant force in the world and the architect of the international order. Moreover, the scale of the confrontation has escalated to a point where impartial mediators are nonexistent," the expert explained.

Izvestia: IDF escalates operations in Gaza amid stalled ceasefire negotiations with Hamas

The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) are intensifying their strikes against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, with three divisions actively engaged against the movement, an IDF source told Izvestia. This escalation comes amid heightened ceasefire negotiations. Concurrently, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced "good progress" in efforts to achieve a ceasefire in Lebanon, aligning with the Qatari approach to Gaza. However, media reports indicate that current diplomatic efforts may not succeed, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is awaiting the results of the US presidential election.

"We are intensifying our attacks on Hamas in Gaza. A serious blow is being dealt to the potential and fighting spirit of Hamas militants," the IDF source stated.

Diplomatic efforts to establish a ceasefire are showing some promise. Negotiations resumed in Doha on October 27, where the US presented a new proposal for a settlement in Gaza. This plan calls for a one-month ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Qatar. Alongside the Doha discussions, an Egyptian proposal for a two-day ceasefire in Gaza was also introduced, aimed at securing the release of four Israeli hostages in exchange for several Palestinian prisoners. However, these proposals contain significant gaps that hinder agreement, including the temporary nature of the ceasefire and the format for the withdrawal of Israeli troops, Izvestia reports.

According to Lebanese university professor Jamal Wakim, despite the setbacks faced by Hezbollah, the remarks from its new Secretary-General Naim Qassem indicate that the Shiite movement still ties a ceasefire in Lebanon to the cessation of Israeli military actions in Gaza.

"We observe ongoing fighting in Palestine, southern Lebanon, and continued drone strikes against Israel from Iraqi and Yemeni resistance groups. These forces remain united, and I do not believe a ceasefire in Lebanon is achievable without addressing the events in Gaza," the expert noted in an interview with Izvestia.

Izvestia: Hungary to continue peace mission in Ukraine post EU presidency

Budapest will pursue its peace mission to resolve the conflict in Ukraine after its EU presidency ends, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto told Izvestia. The country will promote dialogue at all international forums, including the EU, OSCE, and NATO. Hungary's mandate in this capacity expires in two months, and in 2025, it will be replaced by Poland, one of Ukraine's most important European allies. However, Warsaw does not have much influence in the European Union, and its relations with Kiev have been unstable lately, the newspaper writes.

• "Our peace mission is independent of the presidency rotation because the war next to us is unfortunately a reality. As long as the war in Ukraine continues, our peace mission will persist on all international platforms in the EU, NATO, OSCE, or anywhere else. We always advocate for peace and the restoration of dialogue," the Hungarian foreign minister told Izvestia.

  In 2025, Hungary will likely continue to seek a peaceful solution or at least draw closer to it, the newspaper writes. Prime Minister Viktor Orban has pursued a fairly independent policy within the European Union even before the EU presidency.

  "Orban will certainly try to continue the peace mission because it is in Hungary's interest. However, it is clear that the presidency provided a chance to raise Hungary's status outside the Western world, which Orban utilized wisely. It was easier to organize the relevant events," Hungarian expert Gabor Sztir told Izvestia.

  In January, the EU presidency will pass to Poland, which is also a NATO member but has an openly militant stance toward Russia. Given Poland's lack of influence in the EU and the unstable relations between Warsaw and Kiev, there is virtually no hope that the new presidency will be able to bring about a rapprochement with Russia, Izvestia writes.

  "Many issues do not even depend on the European factor but on the results of the elections and the further behavior of the United States in this regard. Unlike Hungary, Poland is not considered an independent actor and is subject to a rather strong, I would even say dominant, influence from Washington. Depending on the US position, the Polish authorities will either escalate the situation or simply try to behave more calmly," Polish former member of the Sejm, Doctor of Political Sciences Mateusz Piskorski shared his opinion with Izvestia.

   

  Media: EU deepens divisions in Moldova ahead of presidential election runoff

  Moldovans will choose a new leader in the second round of presidential elections on November 3. Although incumbent leader and pro-European candidate Maia Sandu defeated her main rival Alexandr Stoianoglo in the first round, the latter has every chance of winning, the media reports. Meanwhile, Brussels is urging Chisinau to make a definitive choice between the EU and Russia. Experts, however, believe that Moldova is being forced to make a false choice, as it can objectively break with neither Europe nor Russia.

  A representative of the European Commission told Izvestia about the alleged "unprecedented and malicious interference of Russia in the presidential elections and the constitutional referendum in Moldova." At the same time, the representative noted that Brussels welcomes this "historic choice" of the Moldovan people and will support them on their path to the EU. Additionally, High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell stated that Moldova, like any other country that wishes to join the EU, must sever its ties with Russia.

  • Presenting Moldova with such a choice means condemning the country to an economic catastrophe, as Russia remains the primary market for the republic's producers and EU quotas cannot cover the majority of the country's products, Izvestia writes.

    "Moldovans are not voting for Russia or Europe. Moldova will not disappear from the map. It will border Europe and, of course, will continue to be economically tied to Russia. Because Moldovan products are needed nowhere but in the Russian market," political scientist Oleg Bondarenko told Izvestia.

    The expert believes that Sandu will lose because her own voters hoped she would lead Moldova toward Europe, but this did not occur. This disappointment influenced the outcome of the referendum.

    The leader of the Gagauz Halki (Gagauz People) movement, Ivan Burgudji, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that many Moldovans want to vote for Stoianoglo, but surprises may arise from the foreign diaspora. He also noted that the law on autonomy enshrines the Gagauz people's right to self-determination "in the event of a change in the status of Moldova." "This refers to the European referendum. The Gagauz people did not support it, believing that Moldova can integrate anywhere, and Gagauzia, meanwhile, can consider this—it has the right to do so," he told the newspaper.

     

    Vedomosti: Russian gas imports to EU surge in October amid increased demand

    Deliveries of Russian gas to European consumers (EU countries and Moldova) via transit through Ukraine in October 2024 increased to a level close to the technically possible maximum, Vedomosti writes, citing data from Gazprom, which has a monopoly on pipeline gas exports from Russia.

    Export of Russian pipeline gas to Europe up by 15% over 10 months

    The average daily volume of Russian gas supplies through the Gas Transmission System (GTS) of Ukraine in October amounted to 42.3 mln cubic meters, which is 5% higher than in October last year, according to Vedomosti calculations based on Gazprom data. In total, 1.31 bln cubic meters of gas were delivered to the EU and Moldova via this route in one month. There was also a slight increase on a monthly basis: in August, deliveries reached 1.29 bln cubic meters, or 41.7 mln cubic meters per day, and in September — 1.27 bln cubic meters (or 42.2 mln cubic meters per day).

    Pumping through another export route, the TurkStream gas pipeline, also increased in October, according to Vedomosti calculations based on data from the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG). In October, the average daily pumping reached 48 mln cubic meters, compared to 46.4 mln cubic meters in October last year and 47.7 mln cubic meters in September 2024.

    Analyst at Finam Sergey Kaufman cites the termination of Gazprom's contract for transit through Ukraine as one of the main reasons for the high demand for Russian gas in the EU. As a result, according to him, transit supplies may decrease or cease altogether.

    Another reason for the high demand for Russian gas, according to experts, is the increase in fuel prices on the European spot market. In particular, senior analyst at BCS World of Investments Ronald Smith noted that prices in Gazprom's contracts are tied to the spot market but with a lag of "a month or several months." As a result, the price of Gazprom's gas may now be the most profitable for European companies.

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