Press review: US pulls troops out of Eastern Europe and Trump courts Central Asia
Top stories from the Russian press on Friday, November 7th
US President Donald Trump
MOSCOW, November 7. /TASS/. NATO moves to reduce troop numbers on its eastern flank, as Washington holds a summit with Central Asian leaders. Meanwhile, populism may be behind US leader Donald Trump’s controversial statements about nuclear testing. These stories topped Friday's newspaper headlines in Russia.
Izvestia: As US draws troops out of Eastern Europe, NATO looks to fill gap
The United States has moved to reduce its military presence in a number of countries across Eastern Europe. The American contingent stationed at Romania’s Mihai Kogalniceanu airbase will be reduced from 1,700 to 1,000, the country’s defense ministry announced. Similar drawdowns are expected in Bulgaria, Slovakia and Hungary.
"Regardless of how many troops are deployed at [US] bases in Europe, the United States will retain all command positions and control," Russian Ambassador to Romania Vladimir Lipayev told Izvestia.
Russian Ambassador to Bulgaria Eleonora Mitrofanova added that additional troops may be pulled not only from NATO’s members in the region but also from far-away allies. As the United States pulls out of these countries, European troops as well as non-regional NATO forces, primarily from Canada and Great Britain, could replace its presence on the eastern flank.
The decision is a result of the United States wanting to shift focus to other security challenges, primarily in the Indo-Pacific region where the Americans are bolstering forces to counter China. This rationale aligns with US President Donald Trump’s push for a 5% spending on defense and expectations that the EU shoulder a larger portion of expenditure on support to Ukraine.
As the Americans reduce their military presence in the region, other European contingents may indeed replace them, experts interviewed by Izvestia noted. Several Western media outlets have pointed to such a possibility as well.
The maintenance of troops would require significant spending, to be sure. "While troops could indeed be replaced, this should not be expected anytime soon," Director of the Center for Military-Economic Studies at the Institute of Global Military Economics and Strategy Prokhor Tebin told Izvestia.
And if US troops are replaced with more capable forces from Western Europe, Russia won’t just stand pat, experts warn. "However, it is too early to discuss this," Alexandra Zuyeva, an expert at the same center, told Izvestia.
Vedomosti: Washington holds summit with Central Asian leaders
Cooperation between Central Asian countries and the United States at the C5+1 venue is "quite natural," Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in response to a question from Vedomosti as he commented on the holding of the second C5+1 summit in Washington marking the 10th anniversary of the platform.
The five Central Asian leaders and US President Donald Trump will attend the event. According to Peskov, despite continued contacts between Central Asian leaders and the United States, Russia maintains close relationships and is involved in advanced integration processes with its neighbors at the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). He was referring to Russia-Central Asia meetings, with the most recent event taking place a month ago.
The C5+1 summit kicked off late on Thursday. A day before that, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told a meeting of Central Asian top diplomats that, in the past decade, his country has somewhat neglected the region.
Trump’s invitation to Central Asian leaders to Washington comes a month after Presidents Shavkat Mirziyoyev of Uzbekistan and Kassym-Jomart Tokayev of Kazakhstan met with US business leaders on the sidelines of the 80th session of the UN General Assembly in New York, after which the sides sealed a number of economic deals.
As regards economic cooperation, the United States is just a minor player in Central Asia, said Head of the Central Asia Sector at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations RAS Stanislav Pritchin. However, the United States plays an important role in the foreign policy of the former Soviet republics as the Americans have leverage on global financial institutions and can impose sensitive sanctions, the expert emphasized. "Countries that are part of integration associations with Russia have certain restrictions on deepening cooperation with the Americans, and they are afraid of Washington interfering in their internal affairs," he explained.
By convening the summit, Trump is trying to gain ground on its geopolitical rivals, China and Russia, in Central Asia, Pavel Koshkin, senior researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for US and Canadian Studies, told Vedomosti. According to him, this may also represent an attempt by Washington to "play on the nerves" of Moscow to provoke a response from Russia in the region. "Hence, the United States would like to present itself as a key player in the region. The Americans are interested in its resources, especially oil and rare earths. Apart from economic issues, the side will perhaps discuss the potential opening of US military bases in the region," the expert surmised.
Izvestia: What is behind Trump’s controversial statements about US nuclear tests
The United States would trigger a global chain reaction if it resumes nuclear tests, Russian Federation Council Deputy Speaker Konstantin Kosachev told Izvestia. According to the senior Russian senator, other countries won’t just sit back and watch as Washington breaches the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT).
Trump believes US, Russia, China can agree to reduce nuclear weapons
For now, Russia is not planning to broach the issue at the UN Security Council, Russian First Deputy Permanent Representative to the United Nations Dmitry Polyansky assured the newspaper. "It’s crucial that we clarify what Donald Trump meant through bilateral channels," the diplomat stressed.
Live nuclear testing by the US beyond computer simulations will be perceived as an escalation by the other nuclear powers and will force them to conduct similar tests, analyst at the Higher School of Economics Tigran Meloyan argued. This would certainly lead to a modernization of nuclear arsenals and could crack the global non-proliferation regime. In this regard, responsibility for the future of international security rests squarely on Washington’s shoulders, whose actions will drive the other nuclear powers, the expert specified.
If the United States does hold a nuclear test, other nations including Russia would respond in kind, Konstantin Sukhoverkhov, program manager at the Russian International Affairs Council, told Izvestia. Trump’s statements target domestic and, primarily, external audiences, and his rhetoric may be viewed as an attempt to demonstrate America’s military prowess to its key rivals in the international arena, the expert added.
Trump claims that the United States has the world’s biggest nuclear stockpile, crediting himself for this achievement. Russia is second, followed by China, according to the US leader. Research fellow at the Center for International Security of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations Vasily Klimov calls these remarks from Trump populism not based on factual data.
Russia is ahead of the United States, holding more than 5,400 nuclear warheads, or the world’s largest nuclear arsenal, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute has estimated. The United States comes next with over 5,100 warheads, and China possesses an arsenal of some 600 nukes, and their number is growing rapidly.
Malek Dudakov, an expert in US studies, agrees that as the United States is losing the race, Trump has been making controversial statements, essentially bluffing, for the United States cannot even keep up with China. "While China has the potential to build new nuclear warheads, the Americans have long been lacking such capabilities," Dudakov emphasized.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Trump undecided about strikes on Venezuela
US President Donald Trump who recently said that the US military is getting ready to land in Venezuela has at least postponed a decision on launching a ground offensive in the South American country, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on November 6, citing US officials. While ousting Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro remains a foreign policy priority for the White House, the Americans are seemingly reluctant to dare an outright invasion.
The White House’s declared war on Latin American drug cartels, which is being used as a pretext for putting more pressure on Venezuela and Maduro, seems to be raising increasingly more questions in US ruling circles. Officials in charge of the country’s foreign policy course on the Latin American track told the WSJ that Trump is considering numerous actions.
However, the WSJ added, the White House remains undecided as to whether the goal is to oust Maduro or extract concessions from him. Obviously, no hypothetical timeframes of a potential operation are currently being discussed.
Dmitry Rozental, director of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Latin American Studies, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that launching a military operation or even strikes on Venezuela has always been assessed as carrying great risks and heavy costs. "These are linked primarily to potential protests in other Latin American countries. Such actions would seriously undermine trust in the United States and complicate its policy course in the region," the expert explained. While a full-blown military operation is quite unlikely, he said, the risk of airstrikes on Venezuela remains high. "Potential airstrikes may target any Venezuelan defense facilities or what the United States will eventually classify as drug trafficking bases. There are multiple options," Rozental noted.
Meanwhile, Maduro is consolidating power in the country. Venezuelan Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello announced that a meeting of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela unanimously voted to allow Maduro "to make decisions on reorganizing the party and appointing its national leaders." "This is a natural phenomenon when a head of state seeks more powers amid a crisis. The Venezuelan establishment may perhaps feel certain US pressure, hence its push for more consolidation which, in turn, will strengthen Maduro’s positions," the expert added.
Vedomosti: Russian Central Bank explains fundamental reasons behind ruble strengthening
The Russian currency’s fundamental strengthening is due to more than just the tightening of monetary policy, the Bank of Russia said in a report discussing its key rate. Other factors include import restrictions, reduced demand for foreign assets and sales of National Wealth Fund assets. Demand for foreign assets from residents has declined due to sanctions restrictions, the regulator added.
The ruble has seen a steady rise since a CBR meeting on September 12 when the regulator lowered the key rate to 17% even as forecasts had the rate going down to 16%, Mikhail Vasilyev, chief analyst at Sovcombank, argues. Selling foreign currency earnings rather than borrowing in rubles will benefit exporters more amid a higher ruble rate, he adds. The Russian currency is also supported by sales of yuan reserves as part of budget operations amounting to 9.5 billion rubles ($117 million) per day, Vasilyev recalled.
The growing volume of foreign trade settlements in rubles, too, has propped up the ruble, Alexander Potavin, an analyst at Finam, told Vedomosti. According to him, the share of rubles in settlements for the export of goods and services rose to 56.3% in August from 41.5% in 2024 and 14.4% in 2021, while the figure for imports went up to 54.1% from 24.2% in 2021.
Renaissance Capital and Sinara expect the ruble to weaken to 90 per $1 later in 2025, while T-Investments sees a reverse to a gradual ruble weakening to above 90 per $1, Sofya Donets, a chief analyst, said. Cifra Broker maintains its forecast of the ruble trading at 90-95, according to chief analyst Natalia Pyryeva.
