Press review: EU scrambles ahead of Putin-Trump summit and Russia-US Arctic thaw odds good
Top stories from the Russian press on Thursday, August 14th
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Vladimir Zelensky
MOSCOW, August 14. /TASS/. EU leaders work furiously to bring Donald Trump over to their side ahead of Friday's Russia-US summit; overlapping interests pave the way for Russia-US cooperation in the Arctic; and Trump’s Golden Dome project raises the risk of an arms race in space. These stories topped Thursday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Media: EU leaders fear Trump-Putin summit may leave Ukraine out in the cold
The European Union is adamant that Ukraine must have a seat at the negotiating table with Russia, and that a ceasefire must be laid down, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said following an online summit involving the leaders of the EU, Ukraine and the US on Wednesday. Still, many in the EU doubt that US President Donald Trump will be swayed by Europe’s demands, Vedomosti writes.
The Europeans are uneasy about what might come out of the upcoming Alaska summit between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. In their view, the meeting’s outcome could highlight a new trend in international relations, one in which the US and Russia make far-reaching decisions without taking into account the opinions of the EU and Ukraine, Western media outlets note.
US, EU leaders agree to maintain close coordination on Ukraine — von der Leyen
The EU seeks to limit the US president’s freedom of action with regard to the Alaska summit, Lev Sokolshchik, researcher with the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, believes. The Berlin meeting between Zelensky and European leaders marks an attempt to seize the political agenda.
But Europe doesn’t have a clear blueprint for ending the conflict in Ukraine, Vladislav Belov, deputy director of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Europe, points out. In the current situation, the European Union is simply grandstanding, claiming that it wants peace, while in fact, Europe seeks to continue the war, as its goal has always been to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia. That said, the Europeans will try to bring Trump over to their side, get him to take a hard line against Russia, the expert emphasized.
But if European politicians think they can persuade the current US president to pursue his predecessor Joe Biden’s policy of confrontation with Russia, they are sorely mistaken, Vladimir Shapovalov, deputy director of Moscow State Pedagogical University’s Institute of History and Politics, told Izvestia. Trump, he argues, does not see them as equal partners.
The EU and Ukraine lack a strategy at this point. They were completely unprepared for a Russia-US summit and had even convinced themselves that more US sanctions on Moscow were inevitable. President Putin has one-upped his opponents, depriving them of room to maneuver. Seeing how Brussels and Kiev are now scrambling, it’s clear they lacked political foresight, Diplomatic Academy Vice Principal Oleg Karpovich concluded.
Izvestia: Overlapping interests pave way for Russia-US Arctic cooperation
Russia-US Arctic cooperation will likely be one of the topics on the agenda at the August 15 meeting between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. The Arctic region, which until recently was seen as an arena for confrontation between world powers, could become an area of long-term cooperation between Moscow and Washington, Izvestia notes.
Trump has made no secret of being interested in resources in various parts of the world. This is why the US signed the so-called minerals deal with Ukraine. Resource scarcity is also at the crux of the latest pause in its trade war with China, as the US is unable to provide sufficient volumes of rare-earth metals to manufacturers of microelectronics and the defense industry. Since January, Trump has at least three times spoken of Russia as a country rich in resources. Putin, in turn, called on the US to cooperate in rare-earth projects back in February.
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According to US expert estimates, 90 billion barrels of oil, 19 trillion cubic meters of gas and 44 billion barrels of gas condensate are available in the Arctic, representing almost a quarter of the world’s oil and gas resources. The region’s resources are indeed impressive but production costs are high, Yelena Telegina, head of the Department of International Energy Business at the Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas, notes.
In addition, there is also a military aspect to the region's development. As of 2022, NATO countries had 19 military bases beyond the Arctic Circle, with eight belonging to the US, five to Norway, another five to Denmark and one to Iceland. As for Russia, its proximity to the Arctic gives it a major edge. Russia has the longest Arctic coastline and big cities beyond the Arctic Circle. In addition, the country owns an icebreaker fleet of 57 vessels compared to 49 ships total for the rest of the world has (the data may vary due to differences in classification standards).
"For decades, Russia has been using Arctic Ocean routes to deliver supplies to its northern cities. Besides, we should not forget about the Northern Sea Route, through which millions of tons of cargo pass," Ilya Kramnik, research fellow with the Center for North American Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, said. "As for the Arctic’s military value, it offers the shortest route from one hemisphere to the other for missiles and strategic bombers," he added.
In short, it is cooperation on a number of projects, including in the Arctic, and, consequently, the creation of related technical capabilities, currently unavailable due to sanctions, that could be broached at the Putin-Trump meeting. Any such strategic collaboration could significantly reshape the overall structure of US-Russian trade and economic relations.
Izvestia: Trump’s Golden Dome project could fuel arms race in space
The Golden Dome air defense system, proposed by US President Donald Trump, will consist of four layers. Those will include one satellite-based layer and three land-based ones, with 11 short-range batteries located across the US, including in Alaska and Hawaii, Izvestia writes, citing US media reports.
The architecture is largely based on existing systems such as the GMD, THAAD, Aegis, Patriot, as well as on the systems whose development began during Trump’s first presidential term and earlier, Oleg Krivolapov, senior researcher with the Department of Military and Political Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for US and Canadian Studies, says. He explains that space-based interceptors are the most expensive part of the project, as well as the most vulnerable one and potentially the least effective; and they still need to be developed and deployed. As for the creation of an integrated system that would combine data from various radars and send it to interceptors, its establishment has been proceeding slowly but steadily since the US withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in 2002.
If Trump now crosses the symbolic line by launching practical work to deploy interceptors in space, it will be easier to further develop them at the next stage, Russian International Affairs Council expert Alexander Yermakov pointed out. However, the expert stressed that the best that could be done within the three-year timeframe specified by Trump is to launch prototype tests, and that alone would be an achievement.
"Despite the existing difficulties, I have no doubt that the Americans will demonstrate space interception under so-called laboratory conditions fairly soon," Dmitry Stefanovich, researcher with the Center for International Security at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, emphasized.
Meanwhile, projects like the Golden Dome add momentum to the space arms race, Krivolapov and Yermakov warned.
According to Stefanovich, space-based capabilities will continue to grow as space infrastructure becomes a key factor for military operations on Earth. Notably, the US doesn’t hesitate to point to the usefulness of such potential. "A major arms race, which involves both offensive and defensive weapons based on Earth and in space, is clearly gaining momentum. Besides, this time, there are far more active participants in the race," the expert concluded.
Vedomosti: Turkey, new Syrian authorities unite against Kurds, Israel
Syrian Kurds are failing to integrate into the new Syrian government’s structures, while their YPG armed units are unwilling to disarm, seemingly stalling for time in spite of the agreements achieved. This is what Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said following an Ankara meeting with his Syrian counterpart Hassan al-Shaibani, Vedomosti reports.
In mid-March, Ahmed al-Sharaa, Syria’s interim president and leader of the Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham group (designated as a terrorist organization and outlawed in Russia), made an agreement with Kurdish military leader Mazloum Abdi that control over the latter’s units would be handed over to Damascus. The country’s central government was also to take control of the border with Turkey. In exchange, the Kurds were promised "constitutional rights," including language rights. They were also supposed to fight against supporters of the country’s overthrown president, Bashar Assad. However, the implementation of the agreement stalled. Meanwhile, the Kurds continue to face the threat of a Turkish military intervention.
As Ankara and the new Syrian authorities continue their dialogue over perceived threats coming from Israel, Turkey could set up military bases in the Arab Republic, a prospect that has been repeatedly reported in the Turkish media, Boris Dolgov, leading researcher with the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oriental Studies, noted.
In contrast, Nikolay Sukhov, senior researcher at the Center for Middle East Studies under the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, believes that Ankara is unlikely to openly declare a military presence in Syria at this moment, knowing that Israel would take action to prevent that, including by carrying out direct strikes.
Although the Kurds, backed by the US, are the most organized and powerful military force in Syria, this doesn’t automatically mean they can achieve their political goals, Ikbal Durre, associate professor at Moscow State Linguistic University, noted. According to him, Washington is unwilling to spoil relations with Ankara: "Ties with Turkey are more important for the Americans. However, as things stand now, decentralization is the only thing that can ensure security and stability in Syria." Ankara is not interested in a Syrian Kurdish autonomy for fear that it would give rise to similar demands from Kurds in Turkey, Durre added.
Dolgov agrees that the Syrian Kurds are afraid of sharing the fate of the Alawites and, to some extent, the Druze. In Durre’s view, military risks in Syria could create a security vacuum. Dolgov also believes that since the US and Israel back the Kurds, there will only be local clashes between the new Syrian authorities and the YGP forces as Turkey will not interfere directly due to concerns that the conflict may spread further.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Europe may increase Russian gas imports amid supply uncertainty
The European Union remains one of the top five importers of Russian oil and gas. In July, EU nations spent 1.3 billion euro on Russian hydrocarbons, behind only China, India and Turkey, Rossiyskaya Gazeta reports, citing data from the Finland-based Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).
Last month, the EU was the world’s largest buyer of Russian pipeline gas, accounting for 36% of its export amount, as well as the largest purchaser of liquified natural gas (LNG) — 51%.
The position of EU countries has long been clear: they continue to purchase Russian LNG for the time being, but once large amounts of US and Qatari LNG from new projects arrive on the market, they will abandon Russian gas. The problem is that Qatari LNG is largely intended for Asia-Pacific countries, while US LNG is provided to the highest bidder. There is no guarantee that gas from the new projects will reach the EU market. The second difficulty for the EU is that relations between Russia and the United States may improve after the two countries’ presidents meet in Alaska.
According to Maria Belova, research director at the Implement company, a scenario where US sanctions on Russia are lifted is on the table. The most likely and best option for Moscow would be that Russia’s current and planned LNG projects are removed from Washington's SDN lists.
Mark Shumilov, resource sector analyst at Renaissance Capital, believes that the lifting of sanctions on LNG projects would have a long-term impact, making it possible to start the construction of new capacities. That said, Russian exports may grow by $30 billion within ten years.
As for the potential resumption of pipeline gas supplies, Milchakova says that the EU would benefit from "ending the madness" of blocking the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline and plans to completely abandon the import of inexpensive Russian pipeline gas.
In Shumilov’s view, if pipeline gas supplies are resumed, exports may rise to 100 billion cubic meters per year, which would be worth some $40 billion. Still, the experts think the likelihood that US sanctions will be lifted this year is not high. Milchakova expects the possibility to be discussed no earlier than in 2026.
