Press review: Russia plays crisis control in Iran and smooths out pain points with US
Top stories from the Russian press on Tuesday, June 24th
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi
MOSCOW, June 24. /TASS/. Top Iranian diplomat Abbas Araghchi visits Moscow to consult with Russia amid Middle East escalation, US-Russia ties move past some tricky issues in relations, and NATO agrees on 5% defense spending target, but not timeline for implementation. These stories topped Tuesday's headlines across Russia.
Media: How Russia and Iran are trying to end war in Middle East
Recent acts of aggression against Iran are unjustified and unfounded, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on June 23 at a meeting with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. The talks, held in the Kremlin, focused on the prospects of normalizing the situation in the region. The Iranian-Israeli conflict has entered a new stage of escalation after the US delivered a number of strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. In response, Tehran attacked Washington’s military bases in the Middle East: in Qatar and Iraq. Blocking the Strait of Hormuz may be the next step, experts caution.
Putin to meet with top Iranian diplomat today — Kremlin aide
"Above all, Iran needs Moscow’s political support, for it to use its clout at the UN in order to ensure the utmost information support of Tehran’s actions, thus shielding it from possible pressure by the US and Israel via the United Nations’ structures. Russia declaring its confidence in the peaceful nature of the Iranian nuclear program is also important, as this could persuade the IAEA Board of Governors and lower the risk of new sanctions being imposed on the republic," Eastern studies expert Leonid Tsukanov told Izvestia.
By accomplishing all of the above, Russia would remain diplomatically engaged without getting involved in the conflict directly, the expert added. That said, Moscow’s involvement in the diplomatic resolution of the Middle Eastern crisis also benefits the US.
"Even taking into account that earlier, Trump emphasized his unwillingness to include Russia in the mediating group on Iran, Moscow can pacify Tehran and hold it back from excessive strikes on US bases in the Middle East. In part, currently, Washington is counting precisely on Moscow without stating so outright," Tsukanov asserted.
At the meeting, the top Iranian diplomat may have asked Moscow to supply Iran with defensive arms and air defense systems, Murad Sadygzade, president of the Center for Middle East Research, suggested in a conversation with Vedomosti. However, such supplies take time, while the Russia-Iran strategic partnership is not officially a military union, the expert believes.
Iran is unlikely to ask for Russia’s military aid in the conflict with Israel and the US, believes Andrey Zeltyn, senior lecturer at the School of Asian Studies at the Higher School of Economics (HSE University). In his opinion, at the talks, the Iranian side wanted to clarify Russia’s stance, coordinating it with the Iranian viewpoint, he told Vedomosti.
"Following US President Donald Trump’s order to deliver strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, the discussion of any potential new deal with the Islamic republic has lost any political or diplomatic meaning — at least in the near future. The very nature of Washington’s actions, accompanied by tough and aggressive rhetoric from the White House, was perceived by Tehran not merely as pressure but as an existential threat to Iran’s political and state system," Farhad Ibragimov, a professor at the Faculty of Economics at the People’s Friendship University of Russia, explained to Izvestia.
According to him, Trump’s unofficial calls for a regime change in Iran give Tehran the moral justification not to discuss anything with him until he changes his rhetoric, as Trump’s Make Iran Great Again slogan essentially aims to incite unrest in the republic and delegitimize the current regime.
"Under continued Israeli strikes on Iranian soil and growing regional tensions, the idea of dialogue appears illusory. Neither side is displaying any willingness for de-escalation. The Iranian political elite, despite internal political differences, has reached consensus on the key issue: concluding an agreement with the US under current conditions is an inappropriate and risky step, while Trump, in Tehran’s opinion, is an unpredictable politician whose promises cannot be trusted," the expert added.
"It seems that the sides want to end the conflict but cannot agree on terms. The US is de facto demanding unconditional capitulation, while Iran insists on halting the airstrikes as a prerequisite for talks. In this situation, the longer the Iranians hold out, the greater the chance of concluding a truce on acceptable terms, because it is difficult and expensive to maintain the current intensity of strikes," Nikolay Surkov, senior researcher with the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO RAS), told Izvestia.
Izvestia: Senior Russian diplomat gives take on bilateral ties with US
Russia and the US have managed to resolve some of the most pressing issues on the bilateral agenda, namely visas and delegation exchanges, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said in an interview with Izvestia at the 11th Primakov Readings international forum. According to him, the sides continue to work on returning Russia’s diplomatic property in the US and restoring direct air links. A third round of consultations will take place in the near future. However, relations have not been steadied to the point that dialogue on strategic stability can be resumed, Ryabkov emphasized. He noted that amid US and Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities there are no conditions for reviving the nuclear deal with Tehran either.
Replying to a question about the interim results of Russia-US dialogue and where it goes from here, the senior diplomat said:
"We do have some interim results and they are not bad. We have dealt with the most pressing, glaring problems on the bilateral dossier regarding visas and delegation swaps. We substantially normalized the financial servicing of our diplomatic missions in both countries. But, as they say, this is just the tip of the iceberg. Given the damage done during the years when Joe Biden’s administration was in office, the progress we’ve made is significant, but it’s nowhere near enough to claim we’re close to a genuine normalization of ties with the United States.
Further work is needed. We think that the third round of bilateral consultations on "irritants," as we call them, must take place in the near future. The time and location will be coordinated, we will work that out. But it is important that the US side also recognizes the need to continue such efforts.
Among the larger issues at the top of our agenda are the need to return Russia’s state property, protected by diplomatic immunity, which was illegally arrested by previous administrations. Certainly, direct air service must be restored, there are many layers, difficult aspects which must be sorted out.
The scope of the bilateral dossier currently on the table signals that we’re gradually moving the dialogue in a more constructive direction. While problems remain, we’re no longer solely trading accusations and adding grievances — and I hope that, increasingly, this belongs to the past," the senior Russian diplomat concluded.
Kommersant: NATO countries agree in principle to increase defense spending, split on timeline
As NATO gets set to hold its summit in the Hague on June 24, it has one singular objective in its crosshairs — increasing defense spending of member states to 5% of GDP. This push comes after US President Donald Trump said during his first presidential term that he wanted NATO members to take on more financial responsibility in defense affairs, a request that his allies seem to have opened up to recently. However, on the eve of the summit it became clear that while agreeing with the target figure, the alliance’s members remain deeply divided on the timeline for reaching it.
NATO summit participants expected to approve military spending target of 5% of GDP
So it is too early for Washington to celebrate. "They’re thinking of a timeline that is, frankly, a decade," Ivo Daalder, a former US ambassador to NATO under President Barack Obama, told Politico. "Trump is probably thinking of a timeline that is by the end of this decade, if not sooner. That’s where I think [the summit] can blow up."
Meanwhile, Moscow has made no bones about where it stands. "It is already clear to everyone that such a decision, if made, will push the economies of European NATO countries onto a war footing at the expense of their citizens’ socioeconomic well-being. The process of militarizing the EU will accelerate, the state of security in Europe and globally will take a turn for the worse," Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko said, noting that in response, Moscow will continue "to take all necessary measures to ensure our security and defense capability."
Media: How US strikes on Iran could impact global oil prices
Amid US strikes on Iran and the risk of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could surge to $100 per barrel, but the market will stabilize after policy adjustments by OPEC+, experts polled by Izvestia believe. On June 23, financial markets responded cautiously to the flare-up: oil fell to $75 per barrel, while leading stock indices, including the Moscow Exchange, decreased by a mere one per cent. Nevertheless, the IMF has already warned of the conflict’s potential to weigh heavily on the global economy, forecasting global GDP growth could slow to below 2%.
According to Yekaterina Kosareva, Managing Partner at WMT Consult, the restrained market response stems from easing fears that oil supplies from the Middle East would be immediately disrupted.
"If Tehran didn’t decide to close the Strait of Hormuz right away, the likelihood of them doing so later decreases with time. Besides, it would be against Iran’s own interests," she told Izvestia.
"Practically the entire volume of Iranian oil goes directly to China, and the lion’s share of Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern countries’ deliveries also goes to China, to India, and, certainly, some European countries. I think this is precisely why Tehran has not made a final decision on blocking the Strait of Hormuz. Because then Iran’s closest allies, namely, China, will be hurt," Valery Andrianov, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, told Izvestia.
However, the situation on global markets still depends on how the conflict unfolds. If, in addition to Israel, Iran also clashes with the US, the geopolitical premium may sharply grow, with experts not ruling out a price increase to $90 per barrel. "If Iran refrains from significant retaliatory strikes against the US, the escalation could ease, bringing oil prices down again," Finam analyst Alexander Potavin told Kommersant.
That said, regardless of how things unfold, the oil market will remain volatile in the coming days. "This geopolitical exchange of threats creates ideal conditions for sharp price swings and short-term speculations," Alyona Nikolayeva, portfolio manager at Astero Falcon, noted in a conversation with Kommersant.
Kommersant: Russian defense tech eyes export opportunities amid war-driven growth
New defense companies founded to supply the Russian army with innovative solutions in the spheres of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), communication systems and robotics, hope to expand to foreign markets after Russia’s special military operation concludes, according to an analytical report by Russia’s Center for Unmanned Systems and Technologies made available to Kommersant. This will not be an easy task due to restrictions in the sphere of military-technical cooperation where approvals at various levels are required. The industry’s representatives hope that bureaucratic barriers will be removed and a special oversight agency is created, providing support in obtaining export licenses and approving deals.
Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, notes that, as opposed to Ukrainian defense companies, whose production relies heavily on foreign-made components, their Russian competitors are actively involved in import substitutions and creating a domestic production base of necessary components. However, according to the expert, realizing their export potential will be possible only if Western sanctions are relaxed, as they significantly limit Russian companies with regard to logistics and transactions.
In turn, unmanned aviation expert Denis Fedutinov reiterated that even before the onset of the special military operation, some Russian unmanned systems were supplied both to post-Soviet countries (Belarus, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan) and wider (Pakistan, Venezuela, Angola). Amid Russia’s growing expertise in this sphere, following the large-scale use of drones in the special military operation, a substantial increase in interested foreign clients may be anticipated, and not just from Russia’s traditional partners, the expert forecasted. In his opinion, reconnaissance systems and loitering munitions will be particularly popular. "Technologies they are based on have been fine-tuned during combat use, including from the point of view of overcoming countermeasures," he explained.
