Press review: Iran, Israel push pause on conflict and NATO summit in The Hague kicks off
Top stories from the Russian press on Wednesday, June 25th
MOSCOW, June 25. /TASS/. Ceasefire between Iran and Israel puts the region’s most serious escalation in years on pause; NATO’s summit in The Hague is dominated by debates over defense spending and alliance cohesion; and oil prices plunge following the Iran-Israel ceasefire. These stories topped Wednesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Izvestia: Fragile Iran-Israel ceasefire halts escalation, avoids all-out regional war
The most serious escalation in the Middle East in recent years was brought to a halt in a single day. After twelve days of exchanging missile strikes, including attacks on nuclear facilities, Israel and Iran reached what has been described as a "full and final ceasefire." Although it was US President Donald Trump who announced the truce, and despite both sides subsequently pointing their missiles at one another again, none of these incidents led to a resumption of full-scale military operations. Arguably the most important thing, Izvestia writes, is that the region managed to avoid an all-out war, a scenario that could easily have spiraled into a third world war. Experts interviewed by the newspaper highlighted how cooler heads prevailed in the conflict.
Israel says tasks of its operation against Iran achieved, agrees to ceasefire
"This could have turned into a major regional war, but that was avoided because neither Iran nor the United States wanted maximum escalation," Middle East expert Ilya Vedeneev told Izvestia. "Nevertheless, it cannot be ruled out that Iran’s nuclear program remains intact and that the country will not abandon its ambitions to enrich uranium beyond the level needed for a peaceful program. On the contrary, Iran now has a strong incentive to pursue nuclear weapons," he warned. At the same time, Vedeneev noted that some sort of nuclear deal might still be reached, although it would certainly no longer be "comprehensive."
"Both Iran and Israel are declaring that they have achieved their objectives: Israel speaks of weakening Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities, while Iran claims it has deterred Israeli aggression. In this way, both parties are expressing a degree of satisfaction with the current status quo and appear generally open to de-escalation," Middle East expert Leonid Tsukanov told the newspaper.
However, within three hours of Trump’s announcement, the Israeli military reported missile launches originating from Iranian territory. On the afternoon of June 24, Israeli aircraft carried out a strike on a radar station near Tehran in response to Iran’s morning shelling of Israeli territory. Neither incident led to a resumption of full-scale hostilities, which, according to Tsukanov, reflects restraint and mutual unwillingness to escalate the conflict once again. The expert stressed that one should not expect a complete resolution to the conflict.
According to Andrey Baklanov, Deputy Chairman of the Association of Russian Diplomats and a professor at the Higher School of Economics, the United States effectively achieved what it wanted: a demonstrably successful military operation that clears the way for addressing other priorities, including domestic financial and economic challenges.
Vedomosti: NATO’s ‘most important summit’ in years opens in The Hague amid alliance tensions
The NATO summit that began on June 24 in The Hague is being described as the "most important" in recent years. Leaders of the alliance’s member states are addressing a number of key issues, but the central item on the agenda is defense spending commitments for NATO members. Experts interviewed by Vedomosti view the summit as largely symbolic, doubting that it will lead to any meaningful outcomes, interpreting Trump’s spending demands as domestic political theater, and seeing limited prospects for overcoming institutional inertia or revitalizing NATO’s role in a multilateral context.
NATO summit participants expected to approve military spending target of 5% of GDP
According to Reuters, the summit’s draft communique includes a goal of upping defense spending levels to 5% of GDP by 2035, with the possibility of a review in 2029. In other words, there are no guarantees that this target will survive past Trump’s second and final presidential term, which expires on January 20, 2029. Reuters’ sources also emphasized Mark Rutte’s determination to oversee a smooth summit, his first as NATO chief, making the primary aim of the event the demonstration of allied unity.
One of the most high-profile meetings set to take place is that between President Trump and Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky. Zelensky, who was invited to attend the summit, had previously expressed his desire to speak with Trump on the sidelines of the gathering.
The summit appears to hold little promise of producing tangible results, according to Pavel Koshkin, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The expert is skeptical that any concrete agreements will be reached, particularly on matters related to Ukraine or the Middle East. As for the 5% of GDP defense spending goal, Koshkin believes Trump is using this talking point to pander to his domestic audience, while for European leaders, it serves as a tool for political mobilization under the "Russian threat" narrative.
President Trump’s brief visit to the NATO summit reflects his skeptical stance toward multilateral diplomacy, Associate Professor at the Higher School of Economics Dmitry Novikov told Vedomosti. The American president is signaling the secondary importance of the alliance by favoring unilateral actions.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Middle East ceasefire sends oil prices plummeting due to rising supply concerns
The price of Brent crude oil has plunged to $68 per barrel following reports of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. WTI crude oil is currently trading just above $66 per barrel. On the morning of Monday, June 23, in the immediate aftermath of the United States’ strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, Brent briefly surged to $80 per barrel. Experts interviewed by Rossiyskaya Gazeta agree that Iran’s limited retaliatory strike and easing geopolitical tensions, combined with rising supply and softening demand, especially from China, are likely to push Brent oil prices down to the $60-65 range, with potential for further decline if production growth continues.
According to Equity Portfolio Manager at Alfa-Capital management company Nikita Zevakin, Iran’s retaliatory strike on the US military base was extremely limited. Market participants clearly interpreted the strike as a sign of de-escalation and a move toward diplomatic engagement. Vladimir Chernov, an analyst at Freedom Finance Global, holds a similar view. He told the newspaper that the strike was largely symbolic, caused no significant damage or casualties, and was therefore seen by markets as a signal of conflict resolution rather than escalation.
Non-geopolitical factors are also working against a rise in oil prices. Demand is expected to outpace supply in the second half of this year, but demand growth in China, the world’s largest oil importer, is projected to slow down. Further downward pressure on oil prices is being exerted by the OPEC+ alliance’s decision to accelerate the phase-out of production cuts.
Currently, the only factor supporting oil prices is stagnation and even a slight decline in the US production, which had previously been expected to see the most significant supply growth.
Zevakin believes that, in the absence of further escalation in the Middle East, Brent oil would stabilize within the $60-65 per barrel range. At the same time, he does not rule out the possibility that the winding down of the active conflict phase may be nonlinear, with temporary flare-ups, which could lead to short-term spikes in oil prices.
Chernov expects oil prices to return to pre-escalation levels in the near future, meaning Brent will likely hover around $65-66 per barrel. However, he also allows for a gradual further decline, potentially bringing Brent down to the $60-62 range per barrel, driven by increased output from OPEC+ countries.
Izvestia: Lavrov sees West backpedaling on Ukraine
The West is now imploring Ukraine to agree to a ceasefire without additional preconditions, despite Kiev having previously rejected such a proposal, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated during his speech at the 11th Primakov Readings International Scientific and Expert Forum. Russia, he emphasized, remains open to dialogue, but only on the basis of ironclad guarantees ensuring the implementation of any agreements reached. This year, the forum brought together 40 experts from 15 countries, alongside leading Russian politicians. Analysts interviewed by Izvestia believe that the Primakov Readings now serve as an alternative to the Munich Security Conference, which has fallen out of favor.
West is begging for ceasefire for Ukraine without preconditions — Lavrov
Lavrov addressed in detail the situation surrounding the conflict in Ukraine. "Do you remember how it all began? ‘Russia must suffer a strategic defeat on the battlefield!’ — they screamed, almost hysterically. After a while, the slogan shifted, and they began loudly declaring that ‘Russia must not win in Ukraine.’ And now, they are demanding, pleading, and begging for an immediate ceasefire without preconditions. This is exactly what Zelensky categorically rejected a couple of years ago, when he still lived and worked under the slogan of a strategic defeat on the battlefield," the minister stated.
He also spoke at length about the situation in the Middle East. Russia, he said, supports peace in the region and has offered proposals to help normalize the situation. According to Lavrov, the strike on Iran is a gross violation of universally recognized norms of international law.
Amid rising global tensions, the importance of Russian-American dialogue is growing. The two sides continue working systematically: the presidents of Russia and the United States have already held five official telephone conversations, and their delegations have met twice to reduce "irritants" in bilateral relations. A planned third round of talks has been postponed but is expected to take place in the foreseeable future, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov previously told Izvestia.
The Primakov Readings are a crucial forum that in many respects serves as an alternative to outdated Western venues such as the now-discredited Munich Security Conference, Vice-Rector of the Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Oleg Karpovich told Izvestia.
"It is important to emphasize that this is not a political but a scholarly platform, created for the objective analysis of international issues. At the same time, this analysis is rooted in the legacy of Evgeny Primakov, who viewed international expert dialogue as a key component in the construction of a multipolar world," the expert said.
Kommersant: Aluminum prices surge as Middle East tensions rattle markets
The escalation of tensions in the Middle East has triggered a sharp rise in non-ferrous metals prices. Aluminum prices on global exchanges have reached their highest levels in nearly three months, while copper and zinc have hit multi-week highs. Countries in the Persian Gulf account for approximately 20% of global aluminum production outside of China, and although the prospect of conflict resolution exists, analysts interviewed by Kommersant believe that future price trends will continue to be shaped by fundamental market factors.
On June 23, the three-month aluminum futures contract on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose by 1.53% to $2,580 per metric ton, marking the highest level since March 27 of this year. According to LME data, aluminum prices had been steadily increasing since June 19. On June 24, prices adjusted slightly to $2,570 per metric ton, according to the Shanghai Metals Market (SMM).
Three-month copper futures on the LME rose by 0.35% on Monday to $9,660 per metric ton, and during trading on June 24 reached $9,760 per metric ton, the highest since June 10, based on data from the exchange and SMM. Zinc futures for the same period climbed 2.15% to $2,680 per metric ton on June 23, the highest level since June 4. According to SMM, zinc remained near this level on June 24.
Ahmed Aliev, Lead Analyst at T-Investments, attributes the rise in aluminum prices to concerns over a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly all metal exports from the Persian Gulf states are shipped. According to him, these countries produce about 20% of the world’s aluminum supply outside of China.
Pavel Karpus, Partner at S+ Consulting, told Kommersant that volatility in oil and gas markets is also pushing up costs associated with the energy-intensive production of aluminum and copper, as well as transportation expenses.
Aliev further explained that copper prices are rising in anticipation of potential tariffs from the United States and amid historically low inventory levels on global exchanges — current stockpiles can cover less than three days of consumption, compared to six days at the end of last year.
Vasily Kutin, Director of Analytics at Ingosstrakh Bank, noted that the market is seeking to hedge against further declines in stock levels, which could be exacerbated by the imposition of US tariffs and disruptions in production among key supplier countries. According to him, such concerns have intensified in recent weeks.
